How Skytec delivered an urban canopy assessment to a post-Helene Asheville that helped the public go from uncertain to reassured
Keith Aitken, Urban Forester for the City of Asheville, North Carolina knew when he signed on to his new job in March 2023 that the position would be a lightning rod for public concerns. People care about the trees in their neighborhoods—a lot. “There are many groups active on this issue in Asheville,” says Aitken, “and while we all share the same goal, the various groups often pursue different paths to achieve that goal. I consider myself a field scientist, so I want to collect as much data as possible before making decisions.”
In 2023-24, Aitken was leading the development of an Urban Forest Master Plan for the City of Asheville, which included components such as species and invasive plant inventories, and an urban tree canopy change assessment.
Then, Hurricane Helene hit.
Skytec Hired Amid Heightened Public Concern Post-Helene
Helene was a powerful and devastating hurricane that caused widespread catastrophic damage and numerous fatalities across the southeastern United States in late September 2024, breaking rainfall and flood records in Asheville.
After Helene, public concern about the state of Asheville’s urban canopy rose precipitously. Downed trees, tree removal from the debris cleanup, and trees that were deposited in the rivers from upstream all added to the perception of significant canopy loss. Some areas of Asheville, such as Biltmore Park, had lost 70% of their canopy. Other figures ranged from the state of North Carolina’s 40% estimate across a 17-county area to the USDA Forest Service’s 17% estimate for Buncombe County to Aitken’s own estimate of 6 to 7% overall within city limits on the basis of aerial photos.
Canopy studies produced in 2008 and 2018 were controversial because the analyses used different resolutions, making comparisons difficult. It was clear the city needed a new canopy study, and that is when they hired Skytec. Skytec’s job was to provide a foundational report on the extent of the urban forest canopy post-Helene.
Skytec Provides Value in More Ways Than One
After a clean-up hiatus of about one year, the Urban Forest Master Plan and associated inventories began again in 2025. Budgets were tight, nevertheless Aitken issued an RFP for the urban canopy study in June 2025, and Skytec’s bid was selected.
“Because the window for capturing leaf-on imagery was closing rapidly in September 2025, we needed to move quickly,” says Aitken.”The team’s responsiveness and open communication allowed us to secure the foundational data we needed despite several project pauses related to recovery.” The Asheville team had also learned from previous studies that they wanted a firm with the ability to assess the Appalachian terrain, which can be tricky for firms with limited experience interpreting imagery that includes steep slopes, deep gorges, and associated shadows.
Rather than develop a black-box estimate of the urban forest canopy that would spark more questions than answers, Skytec created a transparent tree canopy model that can be replicated by Asheville City staff in the future—thereby enabling tech transfer. “We have an in-house GIS staff who are very good at what they do, but no one knew how to do a canopy study,” explains Aitken.
Andy Carroll, co-founder and CTO of Skytec, summarizes the firm’s approach on this project: “We provided the final tree canopy report, and in addition, we described our technique, models, and data sources so that we could pass the torch to Asheville’s GIS team.”
Results to Guide Future Restoration and Fundraising
Skytec’s analysis compared baseline (2022) and post-storm (2025) conditions using datasets with a common 1-meter spatial resolution. The analysis:
- Quantified urban tree canopy extent before and after Hurricane Helene
- Identified spatial patterns of canopy loss and gain
- Supported municipal planning and recovery strategies
The assessment’s baseline used 2022 National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery, freely available and commonly used to assess tree canopy cover. However, NAIP data were not available post-Helene, so Skytec created a high-resolution orthomosaic (a map made from many overlapping photos) assembled from commercial satellite imagery sources. Both maps were developed at a common 1-meter spatial resolution. Due to the varied terrain and vegetation types across the city, the 2025 analysis required a classification workflow capable of distinguishing fine-scale differences in vegetation and developed land cover.
The Skytec Urban Tree Canopy Change Assessment documents a measurable decline in urban tree canopy across Asheville following Hurricane Helene, with a net loss of 735.76 acres representing approximately 5% of the city’s pre-storm canopy cover. The study also identified hotspots of loss.
However, Skytec also determined that spatial loss patterns suggest a substantial portion of the detected canopy loss may be attributable to urban development activity rather than storm damage. “We found out there was more loss from development since 2022 than from the storm!” exclaims Aitken.
The data nonetheless suggest that natural recovery alone will not be sufficient to offset near-term losses and that targeted replanting will be needed to restore pre-storm canopy levels.
With the canopy results in hand, Aitken is seeking grant funding from FEMA and the State of North Carolina for replanting and maintenance. “The data will help us pinpoint where we want to work. Having hot spot information on tree losses gives us leverage to back up our estimates for needs on what and where to plant.”
“The resulting data has been incredibly valuable to our team,” says Aitken, “and the community appreciates having access to a clear, objective assessment.” The Asheville Urban Forestry Commission, composed of tree industry experts and retired U.S. Forest Service personnel, were confident with the outcomes.
Aitken summarizes: “Before this assessment, we were getting a lot of questions about the state of the tree canopy that generated controversy. Having transparent, high-resolution data supported increased public confidence. The analysis provided a baseline that people could embrace, allowing us to move beyond controversy and work collaboratively toward our shared goal of a healthy and diverse urban forest.”